energy

I've recently become aware of a couple of facts, or more specifically connections among facts. Supposedly income inequality in the US started to rise significantly during the 1970s. US internal oil production peaked in the early 1970s. World oil production reached a plateau in 2005 - it is unclear whether we are actually at 'peak oil' as defined by available reserves, but from a practical perspective it doesn't matter since if reserves are too costly in money and energy to recover, they don't really do any good. A couple of economic sites suggest that rising oil prices from 2005 were at least partly responsible for the timing of the 2008 recession - it was a doomed bubble in any case, but as energy costs rise, then all material costs rise as well, and at some point that simply has to effect the general economy.

So, if these are not just coincidences, they suggest that world economies will never fully 'recover' in some sense. Unemployment may go down, per capita growth measured in dollars may go up. Oil or other fossil fuels will never truly be used up. But the entire united states population, much less the rest of the world, will hardly be able to return to the profligate post-WWII era when one could buy anything on credit, and drive or fly anywhere with little regard to the effects on household budgets. And having won the 'war' on marxism, and added over a billion chinese and russian workers accepting very low salaries (compared to american workers) to the world's competitive free-market doesn't help.

On the plus side, assuming that at some point total world production of everything will contract, measured at least in terms of fossil fuels burned up, then at some point we will in fact stop exacerbating global climate change. The only issue is how bad things will be at that point. The prudent thing to do would be to plan ahead for such a world, and start conserving oil and water now, and finding an alternative economic model to material production-based growth measurements. The typical human thing would be to put head in sand, ignore facts, and starve to death or engage in endless border wars with neighbors over oil or water 50 years from now. I won't say which future I personally think is more likely, that would be too depressing (hint!)